Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:39 pm at Detroit); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 32%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2578 at 20:08, 32%.

Nonstops today


DL 2578 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:08	AUS 22:06	32%	8%	0.3%	76%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DTW 18:11 → ORD 18:58AA 3980 · flown by Envoy	2h 18m Chicago	ORD 21:16 → AUS 23:59AA 935	6h 48m	95%	64%
United Details →	DTW 18:20 → ORD 18:57UA 5264 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Chicago	ORD 19:58 → AUS 22:54UA 312	5h 34m	75%	60%
Delta Details →	DTW 18:09 → ATL 20:19DL 2053	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → AUS 00:18 +1DL 1335	7h 09m	97%	56%
American Details →	DTW 19:51 → DFW 21:44AA 1786	1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:50 → AUS 23:51AA 1588	5h 00m	76%	42%
United Details →	DTW 16:48 → EWR 18:42UA 3666 · flown by Republic	2h 12m Newark	EWR 20:54 → AUS 23:58UA 1409	8h 10m	93%	40%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DTW 20:15 → STL 20:50WN 4159	55m St Louis	STL 21:45 → AUS 23:57WN 4038	4h 42m	66%	40%
Southwest Details →	DTW 20:30 → MDW 20:40WN 1782	55m Chicago	MDW 21:35 → AUS 00:10 +1WN 775	4h 40m	58%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON