Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:39 pm at Detroit); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 3145 at 19:45, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 3145 Delta Flight history →	DTW 19:45	BHM 20:39	21%	6%	0.1%	75%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DTW 18:11 → ORD 18:58AA 3980 · flown by Envoy	2h 32m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → BHM 23:29AA 3757 · flown by Envoy	6h 18m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	DTW 18:09 → ATL 20:19DL 2053	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 23:05 → BHM 23:02DL 2034	5h 53m	97%	74%
Southwest Details →	DTW 20:30 → MDW 20:40WN 1782	1h 35m Chicago	MDW 22:15 → BHM 00:05 +1WN 4470	4h 35m	94%	71%
American Details →	DTW 19:58 → CLT 21:55AA 1794	1h 05m Charlotte	CLT 23:00 → BHM 23:31AA 5043 · flown by PSA	4h 33m	83%	67%
American Details →	DTW 19:17 → PHL 21:02AA 5167 · flown by PSA	1h 03m Philadelphia	PHL 22:05 → BHM 23:40AA 5402 · flown by PSA	5h 23m	84%	59%
Delta Details →	DTW 17:59 → LGA 19:50DL 2604	1h 31m New York	LGA 21:21 → BHM 22:59DL 4938 · flown by Endeavor	6h 00m	82%	46%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DTW 21:15 → BNA 21:50WN 1776	1h 00m Nashville	BNA 22:50 → BHM 23:50WN 4559	3h 35m	74%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON