Today: WN 2172 at 10:46 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–23%.

Safest bet today WN 2172 DTW 10:46 → BNA 11:33 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 547 DTW 16:55 → BNA 17:43 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2172 Southwest	DTW 10:46	BNA 11:33	9%	2%	0.1%	no record
WN 1775 Southwest Flight history →	DTW 10:45	BNA 11:20	10%	2%	0.1%	82%
DL 2126 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:35	BNA 22:15	13%	3%	0.6%	75%
DL 1557 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:25	BNA 13:03	16%	3%	0.1%	89%
WN 1776 Southwest Flight history →	DTW 21:15	BNA 21:50	17%	5%	0.4%	73%
DL 2316 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:01	BNA 16:40	20%	4%	0.1%	72%
WN 547 Southwest	DTW 16:55	BNA 17:43	23%	4%	0.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON