Today: 9E 5397 at 17:45 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–33%.

Safest bet today 9E 5397 DTW 17:45 → BUF 18:58 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3870 DTW 15:06 → BUF 15:40 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


9E 5397 Endeavor	DTW 17:45	BUF 18:58	18%	5%	0.2%	no record
DL 978 Delta Flight history →	DTW 22:50	BUF 23:58	26%	7%	0.2%	74%
DL 3637 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 17:52	BUF 19:09	29%	10%	0.2%	65%
OO 3870 SkyWest	DTW 15:06	BUF 15:40	33%	14%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON