Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 11–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 5478 DTW 22:03 → CVG 23:22 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest DL 5060 DTW 17:19 → CVG 18:38 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 5478 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 22:03	CVG 23:22	11%	4%	0.5%	75%
DL 5215 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 18:38	CVG 19:57	14%	4%	0.3%	67%
DL 5446 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 14:16	CVG 15:03	15%	4%	0.2%	83%
DL 5060 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 17:19	CVG 18:38	15%	4%	0.3%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON