tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:24 am at Detroit); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
DL 5345 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record DTW 16:18 DSM 17:13 25% 11% 1.2% 75%
DL 5087 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record DTW 19:45 DSM 20:41 35% 17% 1.6% 65%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 1 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DTW 18:11 → ORD 18:58AA 3980 · flown by Envoy 3h 33m Chicago ORD 22:31 → DSM 00:01 +1AA 4442 · flown by Republic 6h 50m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → DTW 12:20 → MSP 13:10DL 2697 2h 30m Minneapolis MSP 15:40 → DSM 16:54DL 4913 · flown by Endeavor 5h 34m 98% 78%
SouthwestDetails → DTW 20:30 → MDW 20:40WN 1782 1h 25m Chicago MDW 22:05 → DSM 23:35WN 4279 4h 05m 94% 76%
AmericanDetails → DTW 13:32 → ORD 13:52AA 3977 · flown by Envoy 2h 38m Chicago ORD 16:30 → DSM 18:03AA 4973 · flown by SkyWest 5h 31m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → DTW 12:25 → ATL 14:20DL 2188 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 16:37 → DSM 17:52DL 2086 6h 27m 96% 72%
DeltaDetails → DTW 15:59 → ATL 18:00DL 1467 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → DSM 22:29DL 2306 7h 30m 98% 72%
UnitedDetails → DTW 16:28 → ORD 16:58UA 4673 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m Chicago ORD 19:45 → DSM 21:22UA 1325 5h 54m 93% 71%
UnitedDetails → DTW 19:22 → ORD 19:59UA 5483 · flown by SkyWest 1h 26m Chicago ORD 21:25 → DSM 22:56UA 1839 4h 34m 96% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DTW 18:10 → MSP 19:07DL 1842 47m Minneapolis MSP 19:54 → DSM 21:08DL 5253 · flown by Endeavor 3h 58m 70% 50%
UnitedDetails → DTW 18:20 → ORD 18:57UA 5264 · flown by SkyWest 48m Chicago ORD 19:45 → DSM 21:22UA 1325 4h 02m 61% 47%
AmericanDetails → DTW 17:32 → DCA 19:15AA 5172 · flown by PSA 1h 00m Washington DCA 20:15 → DSM 21:57AA 3685 · flown by Envoy 5h 25m 68% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON