Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 3652 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–41%.

Safest bet that day UA 3652 DTW 06:00 → EWR 07:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 1635 DTW 19:08 → EWR 20:49 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3652 United flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 06:00	EWR 07:45	5%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 3409 United flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 09:14	EWR 11:07	7%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 2566 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:15	EWR 08:58	7%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 3706 United flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 11:21	EWR 13:28	9%	4%	0.8%	88%
DL 2577 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:15	EWR 11:56	13%	4%	0.9%	82%
YX 3681 Republic	DTW 13:04	EWR 15:03	22%	6%	0.8%	no record
DL 2609 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:40	EWR 23:25	22%	9%	0.8%	71%
DL 2573 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:10	EWR 15:54	25%	9%	0.8%	71%
YX 3692 Republic	DTW 16:42	EWR 18:55	27%	8%	0.9%	no record
YX 3433 Republic	DTW 15:00	EWR 16:49	28%	8%	0.8%	no record
UA 3644 United flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 19:05	EWR 20:59	28%	8%	0.9%	71%
UA 3666 United flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 16:48	EWR 18:42	29%	8%	0.9%	77%
UA 3611 United flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 15:15	EWR 17:10	30%	8%	0.8%	76%
DL 2567 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:44	EWR 19:30	33%	11%	0.8%	53%
UA 1635 United	DTW 19:08	EWR 20:49	41%	12%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON