Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:40 pm at Detroit); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: 9E 5126 at 20:57 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops today


9E 5126 Endeavor	DTW 20:57	MSN 21:21	12%	5%	0.3%	no record
DL 3544 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 20:37	MSN 20:59	23%	9%	0.2%	76%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DTW 21:20 → ORD 21:57AA 3500 · flown by Envoy	1h 03m Chicago	ORD 23:00 → MSN 00:10 +1AA 3728 · flown by Envoy	3h 50m	91%	73%
Delta Details →	DTW 20:06 → MSP 21:00DL 1303	59m Minneapolis	MSP 21:59 → MSN 23:00DL 1599	3h 54m	76%	59%
United Details →	DTW 19:22 → ORD 19:59UA 5483 · flown by SkyWest	1h 24m Chicago	ORD 21:23 → MSN 22:22UA 1251	4h 00m	95%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON