Today: DL 5606 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet today DL 5606 DTW 08:30 → PIT 09:47 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 3598 DTW 17:46 → PIT 19:02 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5606 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 08:30	PIT 09:47	6%	2%	0.1%	91%
YX 5842 Republic	DTW 08:33	PIT 09:50	6%	2%	0.1%	no record
YX 5844 Republic	DTW 10:15	PIT 11:32	8%	2%	0.1%	no record
DL 5754 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 10:05	PIT 11:18	8%	2%	0.1%	87%
OO 3875 SkyWest	DTW 17:48	PIT 18:59	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 3598 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 17:46	PIT 19:02	22%	6%	0.7%	69%
DL 4640 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 14:25	PIT 15:40	28%	14%	1.0%	72%
DL 5369 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 22:50	PIT 00:07	33%	15%	7.1%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON