tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:10 am at Detroit); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 21%, against 11% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1821 at 14:05, 21%.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1821 Delta Flight history → DTW 14:05 PWM 16:01 21% 4% 0.1% 89%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DTW 18:11 → ORD 18:58AA 3980 · flown by Envoy 2h 11m Chicago ORD 21:09 → PWM 00:43 +1AA 4403 · flown by Republic 6h 32m 95% 81%
AmericanDetails → DTW 13:32 → ORD 13:52AA 3977 · flown by Envoy 1h 36m Chicago ORD 15:28 → PWM 19:02AA 4774 · flown by Republic 5h 30m 93% 77%
AmericanDetails → DTW 11:27 → PHL 13:17AA 5480 · flown by PSA 1h 35m Philadelphia PHL 14:52 → PWM 16:35AA 5127 · flown by PSA 5h 08m 95% 76%
SouthwestDetails → DTW 17:45 → BWI 19:15WN 1526 3h 10m Baltimore BWI 22:25 → PWM 00:03 +1WN 4571 6h 18m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → DTW 14:10 → ORD 14:47UA 5381 · flown by SkyWest 3h 21m Chicago ORD 18:08 → PWM 21:41UA 1401 7h 31m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → DTW 14:35 → IAD 16:11UA 6190 · flown by Mesa 1h 19m Dulles IAD 17:30 → PWM 19:27UA 3651 · flown by Republic 4h 52m 90% 73%
AmericanDetails → DTW 17:32 → DCA 19:15AA 5172 · flown by PSA 2h 54m Washington DCA 22:09 → PWM 23:59AA 4353 · flown by Republic 6h 27m 91% 71%
UnitedDetails → DTW 16:48 → EWR 18:42UA 3666 · flown by Republic 3h 17m Newark EWR 21:59 → PWM 23:30UA 3627 · flown by Republic 6h 42m 97% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DTW 19:45 → IAD 21:20UA 6362 · flown by Mesa 47m Dulles IAD 22:07 → PWM 00:01 +1UA 3459 · flown by Republic 4h 16m 68% 60%
DeltaDetails → DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751 47m New York JFK 12:45 → PWM 14:19DL 5399 · flown by Endeavor 4h 05m 72% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON