Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:45 pm at Detroit); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 42% (calm day: 30%). Best bet: Frontier via MCO, leaving 18:47, 44% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Frontier Details →	DTW 18:47 → MCO 21:32F9 2530	1h 45m Orlando	MCO 23:17 → SJU 02:15 +1F9 4726	7h 28m	78%	44%
Frontier Details →	DTW 19:30 → DFW 21:31F9 3175	1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 23:01 → SJU 05:02 +1F9 2220	9h 32m	77%	39%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DTW 19:51 → DFW 21:44AA 1786	1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:47 → SJU 04:39 +1AA 514	8h 48m	75%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON