Today: DL 1371 at 12:28 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–26%.

Safest bet today DL 1371 DTW 12:28 → STL 13:05 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest WN 4159 DTW 20:15 → STL 20:50 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1371 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:28	STL 13:05	15%	4%	0.1%	83%
DL 2822 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:45	STL 17:24	17%	4%	0.2%	79%
DL 1541 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:00	STL 20:37	19%	4%	0.1%	78%
WN 2400 Southwest	DTW 20:25	STL 21:12	24%	4%	0.1%	no record
WN 4159 Southwest Flight history →	DTW 20:15	STL 20:50	26%	5%	0.1%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON