Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:00 am at Panama City Beach); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Today: AA 5179 at 11:00 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–28%.

Safest bet today AA 5179 ECP 11:00 → CLT 13:46 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 3552 ECP 16:17 → CLT 19:04 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 5179 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ECP 11:00	CLT 13:46	16%	9%	2.1%	83%
OH 5203 PSA	ECP 11:08	CLT 13:46	17%	8%	2.1%	no record
OH 5126 PSA	ECP 18:38	CLT 21:17	20%	7%	2.2%	no record
AA 5178 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ECP 18:54	CLT 21:45	21%	8%	2.2%	56%
AA 3552 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ECP 16:17	CLT 19:04	28%	7%	1.3%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON