Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:19 pm at Panama City Beach); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: WN 312 at 17:32, 29%.

Nonstops today


WN 312 Southwest Flight history →	ECP 17:32	DAL 19:40	29%	7%	0.7%	88%worse than usual
WN 2609 Southwest Flight history →	ECP 17:55	DAL 19:55	31%	7%	0.7%	58%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ECP 14:55 → AUS 17:00WN 1784	3h 10m Austin	AUS 20:10 → DAL 21:15WN 1255	6h 20m	100%	75%
Southwest Details →	ECP 14:55 → DEN 17:10WN 2176	3h 01m Denver	DEN 20:11 → DAL 23:11WN 1579	8h 16m	98%	67%
Southwest Details →	ECP 18:20 → BNA 19:45WN 554	1h 50m Nashville	BNA 21:35 → DAL 23:36WN 533	5h 16m	91%	64%
Delta Details →	ECP 17:03 → ATL 19:21DL 3094	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	5h 22m	87%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	ECP 14:55 → AUS 17:00WN 1784	1h 11m Austin	AUS 18:11 → DAL 19:21WN 1438	4h 26m	67%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON