Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:07 pm at Panama City Beach); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via St Louis, leaving 13:25, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ECP 13:25 → STL 15:15WN 1790	2h 59m St Louis	STL 18:14 → MDW 19:29WN 3357	6h 04m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	ECP 13:20 → DAL 15:20WN 1401	3h 55m Dallas	DAL 19:15 → MDW 21:34WN 1415	8h 14m	98%	72%
Southwest Details →	ECP 17:55 → DAL 19:55WN 2609	3h 00m Dallas	DAL 22:55 → MDW 01:16 +1WN 1416	7h 21m	100%	69%
Southwest Details →	ECP 18:20 → BNA 19:45WN 554	2h 40m Nashville	BNA 22:25 → MDW 00:11 +1WN 4548	5h 51m	98%	67%
Delta Details →	ECP 17:03 → ATL 19:21DL 3094	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	5h 12m	88%	67%
Southwest Details →	ECP 14:55 → DEN 17:10WN 2176	3h 45m Denver	DEN 20:55 → MDW 00:21 +1WN 1683	9h 26m	98%	65%
Southwest Details →	ECP 17:32 → DAL 19:40WN 312	3h 10m Dallas	DAL 22:50 → MDW 01:05 +1WN 1359	7h 33m	99%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	ECP 14:55 → DEN 17:10WN 2176	47m Denver	DEN 17:57 → MDW 21:22WN 2565	6h 27m	62%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON