Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:26 pm at Panama City Beach); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 17:03, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Panama City Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ECP 17:03 → ATL 19:21DL 3094	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	6h 56m	97%	71%
American Details →	ECP 16:17 → CLT 19:04AA 3552 · flown by Envoy	3h 25m Charlotte	CLT 22:29 → PHL 00:22 +1AA 2189	7h 05m	100%	60%
Southwest Details →	ECP 18:20 → BNA 19:45WN 554	1h 35m Nashville	BNA 21:20 → PHL 00:25 +1WN 634	5h 05m	88%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	ECP 18:20 → BNA 19:45WN 554	1h 00m Nashville	BNA 20:45 → PHL 23:54WN 676	4h 34m	64%	41%
American Details →	ECP 16:52 → DFW 19:10AA 3502 · flown by Envoy	1h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:19 → PHL 00:35 +1AA 2542	6h 43m	71%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON