Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:06 am at El Paso)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 1813 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 07:40	MDW 11:35	9%	1%	0.2%	83%
WN 2383 Southwest	ELP 13:45	MDW 17:45	17%	4%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ELP 05:20 → DEN 07:05WN 3706	2h 55m Denver	DEN 10:00 → MDW 13:25WN 755	7h 05m	100%	90%
Southwest Details →	ELP 05:10 → AUS 07:45WN 1791	2h 40m Austin	AUS 10:25 → MDW 12:55WN 4077	6h 45m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	ELP 06:10 → LAS 06:55WN 3958	1h 21m Las Vegas	LAS 08:16 → MDW 13:50WN 2336	6h 40m	99%	89%
Southwest Details →	ELP 06:35 → PHX 06:55WN 4224	3h 06m Phoenix	PHX 10:01 → MDW 15:31WN 4245	7h 56m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	ELP 05:45 → HOU 08:40WN 4702	2h 40m Houston	HOU 11:20 → MDW 13:45WN 1019	7h 00m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	ELP 09:05 → DEN 10:55WN 4332	3h 42m Denver	DEN 14:37 → MDW 18:02WN 1676	7h 57m	99%	82%
Southwest Details →	ELP 06:00 → SAT 08:30WN 1826	50m San Antonio	SAT 09:20 → MDW 11:57WN 3724	4h 57m	90%	80%
Southwest Details →	ELP 19:45 → LAS 20:30WN 1808	3h 25m Las Vegas	LAS 23:55 → MDW 05:25 +1WN 2276	8h 40m	97%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	ELP 16:40 → HOU 19:45WN 3320	50m Houston	HOU 20:35 → MDW 23:05WN 2044	5h 25m	69%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON