Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:18 pm at El Paso); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via Phoenix, leaving 19:07, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ELP 19:07 → PHX 19:41AA 3874 · flown by Envoy	3h 50m Phoenix	PHX 23:31 → ORD 05:03 +1AA 3236	8h 56m	100%	82%
American Details →	ELP 17:32 → DFW 20:27AA 3504 · flown by Envoy	1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:12 → ORD 00:50 +1AA 1193	6h 18m	91%	54%
American Details →	ELP 16:19 → DFW 19:15AA 1802	2h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:30 → ORD 23:57AA 1894	6h 38m	84%	51%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ELP 16:19 → DFW 19:15AA 1802	1h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:31 → ORD 23:02AA 3790 · flown by Envoy	5h 43m	70%	55%
United Details →	ELP 17:35 → IAH 20:44UA 6292 · flown by Mesa	1h 08m Houston	IAH 21:52 → ORD 00:25 +1UA 787	5h 50m	69%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON