Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:54 am at El Paso)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 41%, against 27% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1891 at 19:20, 39%.

Nonstops today


WN 1891 Southwest	ELP 19:20	SAN 20:20	39%	11%	0.3%	no record
WN 1823 Southwest Flight history →	ELP 19:50	SAN 20:40	44%	11%	0.4%	12%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Frontier Details →	ELP 18:59 → DEN 21:00F9 4418	1h 30m Denver	DEN 22:30 → SAN 00:04 +1F9 2711	6h 05m	85%	61%
Southwest Details →	ELP 09:05 → DEN 10:55WN 4332	2h 00m Denver	DEN 12:55 → SAN 14:15WN 3503	6h 10m	97%	60%
Southwest Details →	ELP 10:15 → PHX 10:35WN 1201	2h 55m Phoenix	PHX 13:30 → SAN 14:53WN 385	5h 38m	100%	60%
Southwest Details →	ELP 16:25 → PHX 16:45WN 4823	3h 10m Phoenix	PHX 19:55 → SAN 21:05WN 2580	5h 40m	100%	58%
Southwest Details →	ELP 16:30 → DEN 18:20WN 1798	2h 45m Denver	DEN 21:05 → SAN 22:29WN 3408	6h 59m	96%	56%
Southwest Details →	ELP 19:45 → LAS 20:30WN 1808	2h 15m Las Vegas	LAS 22:45 → SAN 00:03 +1WN 2397	5h 18m	95%	53%
American Details →	ELP 17:32 → DFW 20:27AA 3504 · flown by Envoy	2h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:55 → SAN 23:59AA 2568	7h 27m	92%	53%
United Details →	ELP 14:32 → DEN 16:38UA 1728	2h 42m Denver	DEN 19:20 → SAN 20:46UA 540	7h 14m	96%	51%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ELP 16:00 → IAH 19:10UA 4339 · flown by CommuteAir	49m Houston	IAH 19:59 → SAN 21:39UA 1911	6h 39m	53%	31%
American Details →	ELP 19:07 → PHX 19:34AA 2423	46m Phoenix	PHX 20:20 → SAN 21:34AA 559	3h 27m	47%	27%
Southwest Details →	ELP 16:25 → PHX 16:45WN 4823	1h 10m Phoenix	PHX 17:55 → SAN 19:18WN 2235	3h 53m	68%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON