Today: QX 2136 at 15:16 is the safest bet, 31% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33–42%.

Safest bet today QX 2136 EUG 15:16 → SAN 17:50 · 31% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 3056 EUG 14:37 → SAN 17:08 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


QX 2136 Horizon	EUG 15:16	SAN 17:50	31%	8%	1.3%	no record
WN 556 Southwest	EUG 13:10	SAN 15:35	33%	10%	0.3%	no record
AS 3056 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	EUG 14:37	SAN 17:08	42%	10%	0.7%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON