Today: UA 3529 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–28%.

Safest bet today UA 3529 EWR 08:25 → BUF 09:53 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 3476 EWR 21:18 → BUF 22:59 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3529 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 08:25	BUF 09:53	10%	3%	0.3%	86%
UA 3607 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 16:37	BUF 18:05	25%	6%	0.6%	87%worse than usual
UA 3476 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 21:18	BUF 22:59	28%	12%	1.3%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON