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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596 2h 25m Detroit DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546 5h 47m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → EWR 09:55 → DTW 11:43DL 2566 3h 22m Detroit DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480 6h 46m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:15 → ORD 09:00UA 2800 1h 51m Chicago ORD 10:51 → BWI 13:57UA 2653 6h 42m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799 7h 23m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711 7h 01m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → EWR 15:00 → MSP 17:08DL 2895 2h 37m Minneapolis MSP 19:45 → BWI 23:13DL 2918 8h 13m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → EWR 15:10 → BOS 16:36DL 5829 · flown by Republic 3h 59m Boston BOS 20:35 → BWI 22:29DL 5851 · flown by Republic 7h 19m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 16:27 → BWI 18:23DL 2928 7h 52m 99% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → EWR 18:59 → ATL 21:54DL 2430 51m Atlanta ATL 22:45 → BWI 00:39 +1DL 2590 5h 40m 72% 60%
AmericanDetails → EWR 19:29 → CLT 21:32AA 1811 1h 13m Charlotte CLT 22:45 → BWI 00:14 +1AA 1318 4h 45m 64% 45%
AmericanDetails → EWR 13:38 → CLT 15:29AA 1697 46m Charlotte CLT 16:15 → BWI 17:48AA 1622 4h 10m 66% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON