Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 18:45, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Bozeman on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day


UA 297 United Flight history →	EWR 07:39	BZN 10:26	10%	3%	0.7%	90%
UA 1538 United Flight history →	EWR 09:43	BZN 12:30	16%	4%	0.7%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	EWR 07:59 → ORD 09:43UA 2488	3h 02m Chicago	ORD 12:45 → BZN 15:13UA 623	9h 14m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	2h 43m Minneapolis	MSP 10:56 → BZN 12:24DL 2946	8h 09m	98%	90%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:41UA 530	1h 29m Chicago	ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224	7h 44m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009	3h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:50 → BZN 15:13DL 3906 · flown by SkyWest	9h 58m	99%	89%
United Details →	EWR 07:42 → DEN 09:53UA 1758	1h 39m Denver	DEN 11:32 → BZN 13:20UA 1248	7h 38m	100%	88%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → LAX 08:53UA 2434	3h 57m Los Angeles	LAX 12:50 → BZN 16:24UA 2212	12h 24m	99%	88%
United Details →	EWR 10:00 → DEN 12:18UA 2455	2h 57m Denver	DEN 15:15 → BZN 17:10UA 6030 · flown by SkyWest	9h 10m	98%	86%
United Details →	EWR 07:51 → DEN 10:09UA 1701	3h 35m Denver	DEN 13:44 → BZN 15:33UA 513	9h 42m	98%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	EWR 16:31 → SEA 19:48AS 356	52m Seattle	SEA 20:40 → BZN 23:19AS 458	8h 48m	74%	57%
Alaska Details →	EWR 07:25 → SEA 10:35AS 299	54m Seattle	SEA 11:29 → BZN 14:09AS 285	8h 44m	67%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON