Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 3503 at 09:25 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 3503 EWR 09:25 → CLE 11:09 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 1611 EWR 18:35 → CLE 20:24 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3503 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 09:25	CLE 11:09	7%	2%	0.7%	93%
UA 1833 United Flight history →	EWR 08:30	CLE 10:08	10%	3%	0.7%	90%
UA 1951 United	EWR 07:34	CLE 09:18	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 3616 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 14:15	CLE 16:01	13%	4%	0.8%	75%
UA 2172 United Flight history →	EWR 16:26	CLE 18:12	26%	9%	0.7%	79%
UA 2398 United Flight history →	EWR 19:55	CLE 21:45	30%	13%	0.7%	70%
UA 1611 United Flight history →	EWR 18:35	CLE 20:24	32%	13%	0.7%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON