Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2505 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 2505 EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:00 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 1811 EWR 19:29 → CLT 21:32 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2505 American Flight history →	EWR 06:00	CLT 08:00	8%	3%	2.2%	94%
YX 3635 Republic	EWR 07:00	CLT 08:58	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 1113 American Flight history →	EWR 05:00	CLT 06:57	9%	6%	0.4%	92%
UA 3517 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 07:25	CLT 09:31	10%	3%	0.8%	95%
YX 3547 Republic	EWR 12:59	CLT 14:59	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 3504 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 10:03	CLT 12:07	11%	3%	0.7%	84%
YX 3493 Republic	EWR 10:24	CLT 12:23	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1575 American Flight history →	EWR 07:30	CLT 09:35	12%	4%	2.1%	85%
UA 3537 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 13:00	CLT 15:09	13%	4%	0.7%	84%
UA 3533 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 15:01	CLT 17:10	15%	5%	0.7%	81%
AA 1819 American Flight history →	EWR 13:30	CLT 15:34	23%	6%	1.9%	80%
AA 1697 American Flight history →	EWR 13:37	CLT 15:29	25%	6%	1.9%	84%
DL 8920 Delta	EWR 15:02	CLT 16:50	26%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 2104 United Flight history →	EWR 18:48	CLT 21:02	34%	12%	0.6%	65%
AA 1811 American Flight history →	EWR 19:29	CLT 21:32	41%	13%	2.1%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON