Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:54 am at Newark); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: UA 3419 at 13:52 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops today


UA 3419 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 13:52	GRR 16:03	14%	3%	0.5%	85%
UA 3580 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 19:30	GRR 21:50	28%	6%	1.0%	79%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 13:00 → DTW 14:58DL 2577	3h 02m Detroit	DTW 18:00 → GRR 19:01DL 5800 · flown by Republic	6h 01m	96%	86%
United Details →	EWR 13:10 → ORD 14:53UA 2053	3h 09m Chicago	ORD 18:02 → GRR 20:12UA 1178	7h 02m	96%	74%
United Details →	EWR 16:45 → ORD 18:34UA 661	3h 06m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → GRR 23:57UA 5303 · flown by SkyWest	7h 12m	94%	74%
United Details →	EWR 14:45 → ORD 16:28UA 2788	3h 39m Chicago	ORD 20:07 → GRR 22:09UA 2472	7h 24m	92%	69%
American Details →	EWR 17:21 → ORD 19:23AA 1936	3h 09m Chicago	ORD 22:32 → GRR 00:36 +1AA 1096	7h 15m	92%	68%
Delta Details →	EWR 16:29 → ATL 19:14DL 2322	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → GRR 23:54DL 2865	7h 25m	94%	62%
United Details →	EWR 18:15 → ORD 20:10UA 254	1h 36m Chicago	ORD 21:46 → GRR 23:47UA 1819	5h 32m	80%	59%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → GRR 21:51DL 2210	6h 30m	88%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	EWR 16:50 → DTW 18:51DL 2573	1h 09m Detroit	DTW 20:00 → GRR 21:00DL 4081 · flown by SkyWest	4h 10m	69%	51%
United Details →	EWR 14:40 → DEN 16:58UA 2120	57m Denver	DEN 17:55 → GRR 22:35UA 2121	7h 55m	69%	46%
American Details →	EWR 19:29 → CLT 21:32AA 1811	56m Charlotte	CLT 22:28 → GRR 00:20 +1AA 3113	4h 51m	49%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON