Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 24%, against 9% on a calm day. Safest: UA 3676 at 10:37, 24%.

Nonstops that day


UA 3676 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 10:37	HHH 12:52	24%	4%	1.8%	88%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hilton Head Island on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	EWR 07:15 → ORD 09:00UA 2800	1h 45m Chicago	ORD 10:45 → HHH 14:21UA 3581 · flown by Republic	7h 06m	100%	81%
American Details →	EWR 05:30 → ORD 07:15AA 3185	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 10:00 → HHH 13:33AA 3862 · flown by Envoy	8h 03m	93%	77%
American Details →	EWR 07:30 → CLT 09:35AA 1575	3h 25m Charlotte	CLT 13:00 → HHH 14:16AA 3562 · flown by Envoy	6h 46m	98%	75%
American Details →	EWR 05:00 → CLT 06:57AA 1113	3h 00m Charlotte	CLT 09:57 → HHH 11:17AA 3563 · flown by Envoy	6h 17m	97%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON