Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2434 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 2434 EWR 06:00 → LAX 08:53 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest B6 2073 EWR 20:59 → LAX 23:57 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2434 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	LAX 08:53	9%	3%	0.7%	79%
UA 1805 United	EWR 07:58	LAX 10:59	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2445 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	LAX 09:37	15%	3%	0.6%	81%
B6 1573 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 07:00	LAX 09:49	15%	4%	0.8%	76%
UA 2679 United Flight history →	EWR 10:45	LAX 13:41	15%	4%	0.6%	78%
UA 2692 United Flight history →	EWR 09:15	LAX 11:53	15%	3%	0.6%	69%
UA 212 United Flight history →	EWR 12:00	LAX 14:38	17%	6%	0.6%	78%
UA 2191 United Flight history →	EWR 14:15	LAX 17:13	22%	7%	0.6%	78%
UA 2238 United Flight history →	EWR 16:00	LAX 18:42	25%	9%	0.7%	70%
UA 2641 United Flight history →	EWR 17:30	LAX 20:40	30%	9%	0.7%	72%
AS 287 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 19:29	LAX 22:40	30%	9%	0.9%	74%
UA 712 United Flight history →	EWR 20:10	LAX 23:15	31%	10%	0.7%	59%
UA 353 United Flight history →	EWR 18:45	LAX 21:36	36%	9%	0.7%	68%
B6 2073 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 20:59	LAX 23:57	37%	19%	1.2%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	1h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	7h 55m	96%	87%
United Details →	EWR 06:30 → DEN 08:45UA 670	1h 17m Denver	DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405	8h 04m	98%	86%
United Details →	EWR 06:30 → PHX 08:42UA 2646	1h 24m Phoenix	PHX 10:06 → LAX 11:31UA 2487	8h 01m	99%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON