Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:46 pm at Newark); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 38%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: UA 3589 at 15:55, 38%.

Nonstops today


UA 3589 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 15:55	MYR 18:03	38%	7%	0.7%	82%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 16:29 → ATL 19:14DL 2322	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → MYR 23:55DL 3074	7h 26m	96%	67%
American Details →	EWR 13:38 → CLT 15:29AA 1697	3h 23m Charlotte	CLT 18:52 → MYR 20:03AA 2886	6h 25m	100%	65%
American Details →	EWR 13:30 → CLT 15:34AA 1819	2h 58m Charlotte	CLT 18:32 → MYR 19:42AA 1417	6h 12m	95%	61%
Delta Details →	EWR 13:29 → ATL 16:00DL 2401	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07DL 1093	5h 38m	87%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	EWR 13:38 → CLT 15:29AA 1697	50m Charlotte	CLT 16:19 → MYR 17:25AA 2212	3h 47m	60%	38%
Delta Details →	EWR 18:59 → ATL 21:54DL 2430	46m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → MYR 23:55DL 3074	4h 56m	53%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON