tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:08 am at Newark)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via O'Hare, leaving 14:45, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → EWR 14:45 → ORD 16:28UA 2788 3h 50m Chicago ORD 20:18 → ONT 22:51UA 658 11h 06m 95% 73%
UnitedDetails → EWR 14:45 → SFO 17:48UA 2328 3h 12m San Francisco SFO 21:00 → ONT 22:37UA 552 10h 52m 93% 68%
AlaskaDetails → EWR 09:40 → SEA 12:30AS 373 2h 55m Seattle SEA 15:25 → ONT 18:07AS 592 11h 27m 100% 68%
DeltaDetails → EWR 17:59 → SLC 21:21DL 2033 1h 38m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614 8h 49m 81% 67%
UnitedDetails → EWR 14:12 → IAH 17:10UA 2690 3h 21m Houston IAH 20:31 → ONT 21:55UA 1563 10h 43m 96% 67%
UnitedDetails → EWR 13:30 → SFO 16:28UA 1227 2h 41m San Francisco SFO 19:09 → ONT 20:46UA 2478 10h 16m 89% 66%
DeltaDetails → EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 20:25 → ONT 21:50DL 779 9h 29m 93% 65%
AlaskaDetails → EWR 17:05 → PDX 20:17AS 290 1h 17m Portland PDX 21:34 → ONT 00:00 +1AS 534 9h 55m 77% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → EWR 10:54 → PHX 13:04AA 3058 59m Phoenix PHX 14:03 → ONT 15:28AA 2859 7h 34m 74% 48%
UnitedDetails → EWR 15:41 → DEN 18:23UA 663 57m Denver DEN 19:20 → ONT 20:42UA 2028 8h 01m 63% 42%
AmericanDetails → EWR 17:18 → DFW 20:17AA 813 1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:27 → ONT 22:32AA 711 8h 14m 65% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON