Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: UA 3591 at 16:00, 25%.

Safest bet that day UA 3591 EWR 16:00 → PIT 17:37 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest YX 3469 EWR 17:54 → PIT 19:36 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Weather 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3591 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 16:00	PIT 17:37	25%	6%	0.8%	84%
YX 3682 Republic	EWR 21:18	PIT 23:03	25%	7%	0.9%	no record
YX 3666 Republic	EWR 14:18	PIT 15:59	27%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 3477 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 21:50	PIT 23:23	28%	7%	1.2%	78%
YX 3667 Republic	EWR 20:18	PIT 22:01	31%	8%	1.2%	no record
UA 3403 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 19:29	PIT 21:06	33%	8%	1.2%	82%worse than usual
YX 3469 Republic	EWR 17:54	PIT 19:36	35%	10%	0.9%	no record
UA 4396 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 13:05	PIT 14:35	17%	12%	4.8%	83%
UA 4390 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 09:15	PIT 10:45	18%	8%	0.0%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON