Today: YX 3473 at 09:20 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 42–48%.

Safest bet today YX 3473 EWR 09:20 → RDU 11:17 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2359 EWR 18:55 → RDU 20:37 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


YX 3473 Republic	EWR 09:20	RDU 11:17	10%	3%	0.4%	no record
UA 3631 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 10:00	RDU 11:52	11%	3%	0.5%	100%worse than usual
UA 1410 United	EWR 11:22	RDU 13:12	20%	4%	0.4%	no record
UA 2485 United Flight history →	EWR 14:30	RDU 16:11	33%	9%	0.4%	69%
UA 464 United	EWR 15:34	RDU 17:18	36%	9%	0.4%	no record
UA 1233 United Flight history →	EWR 19:20	RDU 21:10	42%	15%	0.7%	40%
UA 1975 United Flight history →	EWR 17:40	RDU 19:31	44%	12%	0.7%	72%worse than usual
UA 2359 United Flight history →	EWR 18:55	RDU 20:37	48%	15%	0.6%	73%worse than usual
DL 5124 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 09:30	RDU 11:18	14%	12%	5.6%	86%
DL 5260 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 14:30	RDU 16:20	21%	8%	3.9%	79%
DL 5222 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 19:29	RDU 21:25	43%	23%	8.8%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON