Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 3647 EWR 10:17 → ROC 11:40 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 3643 EWR 21:59 → ROC 23:18 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3647 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 10:17	ROC 11:40	8%	2%	0.7%	94%
UA 3643 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 21:59	ROC 23:18	14%	6%	1.0%	73%
UA 4586 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	EWR 16:57	ROC 18:27	33%	20%	14.3%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON