Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2766 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 2766 EWR 06:55 → SAN 09:43 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 573 EWR 18:29 → SAN 21:37 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2766 United	EWR 06:55	SAN 09:43	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1826 United Flight history →	EWR 09:41	SAN 12:35	15%	5%	0.6%	88%
UA 1626 United Flight history →	EWR 09:51	SAN 12:37	18%	5%	0.6%	78%
UA 210 United Flight history →	EWR 16:59	SAN 19:52	26%	9%	0.7%	67%
UA 1513 United Flight history →	EWR 20:47	SAN 23:40	28%	8%	0.7%	50%
AS 573 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 18:29	SAN 21:37	30%	6%	1.0%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:41UA 530	1h 05m Chicago	ORD 08:46 → SAN 11:21UA 660	8h 21m	93%	84%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	55m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27DL 492	7h 27m	94%	83%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366	1h 04m Dulles	IAD 08:26 → SAN 10:49UA 1930	7h 49m	95%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON