Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:32 pm at Newark); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 33–38% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 2291 United Flight history →	EWR 21:29	SAV 23:52	33%	11%	0.5%	81%worse than usual
UA 2645 United Flight history →	EWR 20:52	SAV 23:16	38%	13%	0.6%	71%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Savannah on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 16:29 → ATL 19:14DL 2322	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 22:46 → SAV 23:53DL 2860	7h 24m	97%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	EWR 16:29 → ATL 19:14DL 2322	52m Atlanta	ATL 20:06 → SAV 21:17DL 2425	4h 48m	69%	51%
Delta Details →	EWR 18:59 → ATL 21:54DL 2430	52m Atlanta	ATL 22:46 → SAV 23:53DL 2860	4h 54m	60%	47%
American Details →	EWR 19:29 → CLT 21:32AA 1811	1h 13m Charlotte	CLT 22:45 → SAV 23:57AA 1517	4h 28m	60%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON