Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 3421 at 10:05 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 3421 EWR 10:05 → SDF 12:21 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 3415 EWR 18:21 → SDF 20:46 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3421 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 10:05	SDF 12:21	11%	2%	0.7%	87%
YX 3599 Republic	EWR 10:23	SDF 12:50	12%	2%	0.7%	no record
YX 3405 Republic	EWR 15:35	SDF 18:03	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 3512 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 20:25	SDF 22:50	28%	6%	0.9%	56%
UA 3415 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 18:21	SDF 20:46	30%	6%	0.9%	85%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON