Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3415
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 3415 · EWR → SDF
departs 6:21 PM ET · arrives 8:46 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Sun 10/4 33%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 25%
Thu 10/8 29%
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from EWR are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
SDF (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.