Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3415
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 3415 · EWR → SDF
departs 6:00 PM ET · arrives 8:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 17%
Thu 10/8 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at EWR that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.14 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.