Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3415
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
YX 3415 · EWR → SDF
departs 6:00 PM ET · arrives 8:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 25%
Thu 10/8 29%
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±4 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from EWR are often late
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,583 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SDF (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.