Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3415
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 3415 · EWR → SDF
departs 6:00 PM ET · arrives 8:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 24%
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 25%
Thu 10/8 29%
Fri 10/9 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±0 pts
+24 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
24%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 56% · changed +24 pts in 24h
+24 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
33%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
24%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
SDF usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.04 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.