Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1330 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 1330 EWR 08:50 → SEA 11:57 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AS 462 EWR 17:36 → SEA 20:58 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1330 United Flight history →	EWR 08:50	SEA 11:57	14%	5%	0.7%	79%
AS 373 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 09:37	SEA 12:31	19%	4%	0.9%	96%worse than usual
AS 230 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 09:30	SEA 12:43	19%	4%	0.9%	82%
UA 2387 United Flight history →	EWR 16:25	SEA 19:36	22%	11%	0.6%	59%
AS 299 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 07:25	SEA 10:35	24%	4%	0.9%	74%
AS 356 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 16:31	SEA 19:48	26%	9%	0.9%	73%
UA 1796 United Flight history →	EWR 20:30	SEA 23:44	30%	10%	0.7%	57%
AS 462 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 17:36	SEA 20:58	33%	10%	1.0%	72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366	1h 38m Dulles	IAD 09:00 → SEA 11:51UA 2101	8h 51m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	EWR 11:47 → MSP 13:45DL 2864	1h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	8h 13m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	52m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	7h 44m	94%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON