Today: YX 3689 at 07:22 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–46%.

Safest bet today YX 3689 EWR 07:22 → STL 08:27 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2040 EWR 19:24 → STL 21:09 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3689 Republic	EWR 07:22	STL 08:27	9%	1%	0.2%	no record
UA 3630 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 09:53	STL 11:41	11%	2%	0.3%	91%
UA 2311 United	EWR 09:56	STL 11:34	14%	3%	0.2%	no record
UA 3556 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 14:20	STL 16:07	19%	4%	0.5%	76%
YX 3717 Republic	EWR 14:30	STL 16:25	21%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2040 United	EWR 19:24	STL 21:09	46%	19%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON