Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:06 pm at Newark); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, G7 4503 at 18:55, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


G7 4503 GoJet	EWR 18:55	TYS 21:02	29%	11%	0.6%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 16:29 → ATL 19:14DL 2322	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → TYS 23:52DL 3072	7h 23m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	EWR 16:50 → DTW 18:51DL 2573	1h 42m Detroit	DTW 20:33 → TYS 22:12DL 5138 · flown by Endeavor	5h 22m	84%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	EWR 19:29 → IAD 21:00UA 2677	1h 10m Dulles	IAD 22:10 → TYS 23:49UA 4304 · flown by CommuteAir	4h 20m	66%	55%
Delta Details →	EWR 18:59 → ATL 21:54DL 2430	59m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → TYS 23:52DL 3072	4h 53m	64%	52%
American Details →	EWR 19:29 → CLT 21:32AA 1811	1h 08m Charlotte	CLT 22:40 → TYS 23:51AA 5511 · flown by PSA	4h 22m	57%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON