Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:13 pm at Key West)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 24–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


YX 3502 Republic	EYW 14:23	EWR 17:55	24%	9%	0.8%	no record
UA 1513 United Flight history →	EYW 14:26	EWR 17:37	31%	12%	0.6%	74%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	EYW 16:00 → ORD 18:55UA 3499 · flown by Republic	2h 35m Chicago	ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209	8h 53m	97%	79%
American Details →	EYW 17:29 → MIA 18:25AA 3895 · flown by Envoy	3h 35m Miami	MIA 22:00 → EWR 00:59 +1AA 2008	7h 30m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	EYW 18:18 → ATL 20:32DL 2168	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552	6h 40m	94%	68%
Delta Details →	EYW 14:24 → ATL 16:31DL 1472	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 20:08 → EWR 22:29DL 2527	8h 05m	100%	67%
American Details →	EYW 13:01 → CLT 15:25AA 1826	2h 56m Charlotte	CLT 18:21 → EWR 20:30AA 1071	7h 29m	97%	65%
American Details →	EYW 14:21 → DFW 16:33AA 305	1h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:22 → EWR 23:06AA 2145	8h 45m	87%	60%
American Details →	EYW 12:51 → CLT 15:11AA 1816	3h 41m Charlotte	CLT 18:52 → EWR 20:38AA 2415	7h 47m	95%	58%
American Details →	EYW 16:18 → ORD 19:06AA 3996 · flown by Envoy	1h 03m Chicago	ORD 20:09 → EWR 23:30AA 2549	7h 12m	77%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	EYW 16:52 → CLT 19:08AA 3822 · flown by Envoy	58m Charlotte	CLT 20:06 → EWR 22:12AA 2794	5h 20m	72%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON