Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:44 pm at Key West)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 3499 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EYW 16:00	ORD 18:55	18%	4%	0.3%	85%
AA 3996 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	EYW 16:18	ORD 19:06	25%	5%	0.4%	71%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Key West). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	EYW 17:29 → MIA 18:25AA 3895 · flown by Envoy	3h 25m Miami	MIA 21:50 → ORD 00:26 +1AA 2323	7h 57m	100%	82%
American Details →	EYW 19:40 → MIA 20:30AA 3517 · flown by Envoy	1h 31m Miami	MIA 22:01 → ORD 00:24 +1AA 483	5h 44m	96%	76%
Delta Details →	EYW 18:18 → ATL 20:32DL 2168	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199	6h 35m	94%	75%
American Details →	EYW 16:41 → CLT 19:12AA 3519 · flown by Envoy	2h 37m Charlotte	CLT 21:49 → ORD 22:59AA 815	7h 18m	97%	66%
American Details →	EYW 16:52 → CLT 19:08AA 3822 · flown by Envoy	3h 32m Charlotte	CLT 22:40 → ORD 23:49AA 627	7h 57m	100%	64%
American Details →	EYW 17:34 → PHL 20:40AA 3147	2h 23m Philadelphia	PHL 23:03 → ORD 00:29 +1AA 2840	7h 55m	77%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON