Today: WN 1902 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–39%.

Safest bet today WN 1902 FAT 06:20 → SAN 07:45 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 3388 FAT 16:22 → SAN 17:47 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1902 Southwest	FAT 06:20	SAN 07:45	10%	4%	0.4%	no record
WN 1844 Southwest Flight history →	FAT 06:25	SAN 07:40	11%	4%	0.4%	94%
AS 3402 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 06:00	SAN 07:24	15%	7%	0.8%	92%
OO 3052 SkyWest	FAT 09:57	SAN 11:26	26%	14%	0.9%	no record
AS 3409 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 08:46	SAN 10:12	30%	12%	1.0%	49%
AS 3491 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 11:46	SAN 13:14	31%	14%	0.9%	74%
WN 1903 Southwest	FAT 17:20	SAN 18:44	33%	6%	0.5%	no record
OO 3021 SkyWest	FAT 19:12	SAN 20:40	33%	10%	0.9%	no record
WN 1845 Southwest Flight history →	FAT 17:40	SAN 18:55	39%	7%	0.5%	14%
AS 3388 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 16:22	SAN 17:47	39%	12%	0.7%	65%
AS 2210 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	FAT 10:42	SAN 11:58	53%	12%	1.9%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON