Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:53 am at Kalispell)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: DL 1578 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops today


DL 1578 Delta Flight history →	FCA 06:55	MSP 10:30	11%	6%	1.2%	95%
DL 2575 Delta Flight history →	FCA 15:33	MSP 19:15	21%	4%	1.0%	82%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Kalispell). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	FCA 08:30 → ORD 13:15UA 5976 · flown by SkyWest	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → MSP 16:13UA 2298	6h 43m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	FCA 12:22 → SLC 14:09DL 2813	3h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:21 → MSP 20:54DL 2935	7h 32m	100%	83%
United Details →	FCA 06:20 → DEN 08:28UA 1561	1h 12m Denver	DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397	5h 20m	92%	81%
Delta Details →	FCA 17:29 → SLC 19:15DL 3798 · flown by SkyWest	2h 02m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:17 → MSP 00:53 +1DL 8803	6h 24m	97%	80%
United Details →	FCA 10:42 → DEN 13:06UA 5991 · flown by SkyWest	2h 36m Denver	DEN 15:42 → MSP 18:46UA 2470	7h 04m	96%	80%
Alaska Details →	FCA 06:33 → SEA 07:05AS 2122 · flown by Horizon	1h 30m Seattle	SEA 08:35 → MSP 13:57AS 555	6h 24m	97%	78%
Alaska Details →	FCA 16:34 → SEA 17:12AS 2110 · flown by Horizon	1h 28m Seattle	SEA 18:40 → MSP 23:59AS 386	6h 25m	96%	78%
United Details →	FCA 12:35 → ORD 17:05UA 2362	2h 52m Chicago	ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005	8h 06m	94%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	FCA 15:52 → DFW 20:30AA 1842	1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:30 → MSP 23:57AA 3149	7h 05m	67%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON