Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:56 am at Fort Lauderdale); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 21–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today G4 2232 FLL 11:58 → IND 14:47 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G4 2210 FLL 18:23 → IND 21:06 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


G4 2232 Allegiant	FLL 11:58	IND 14:47	21%	8%	0.3%	no record
WN 1863 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 21:25	IND 00:10	22%	8%	0.2%	42%
WN 1413 Southwest	FLL 16:30	IND 19:16	24%	6%	0.1%	no record
G4 2210 Allegiant	FLL 18:23	IND 21:06	26%	9%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON