tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:45 pm at Fort Lauderdale)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via Bush, leaving 17:00, is the safest bet: 54% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1505 American FLL 17:29 PHX 19:27 36% 10% 0.3% no record
AA 441 American Flight history → FLL 17:07 PHX 18:44 38% 9% 0.3% 64%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 15:29 → JFK 18:48DL 305 2h 07m New York JFK 20:55 → PHX 23:37DL 784 11h 08m 93% 68%
DeltaDetails → FLL 14:47 → MSP 17:39DL 673 1h 09m Minneapolis MSP 18:48 → PHX 20:06DL 2297 8h 19m 88% 68%
UnitedDetails → FLL 16:20 → ORD 19:00UA 403 1h 30m Chicago ORD 20:30 → PHX 22:27UA 602 9h 07m 88% 67%
DeltaDetails → FLL 16:46 → ATL 18:47DL 1413 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 21:45 → PHX 22:39DL 842 8h 53m 98% 65%
SouthwestDetails → FLL 18:20 → MDW 20:25WN 1870 2h 30m Chicago MDW 22:55 → PHX 00:32 +1WN 3803 9h 12m 96% 65%
UnitedDetails → FLL 15:14 → IAH 17:10UA 2724 2h 43m Houston IAH 19:53 → PHX 20:42UA 2078 8h 28m 92% 64%
UnitedDetails → FLL 17:00 → IAH 18:56UA 1696 2h 44m Houston IAH 21:40 → PHX 22:25UA 2432 8h 25m 96% 64%
DeltaDetails → FLL 15:32 → ATL 17:42DL 1341 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 20:49 → PHX 21:51DL 929 9h 19m 98% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → FLL 20:10 → HOU 21:45WN 4583 50m Houston HOU 22:35 → PHX 23:20WN 2066 6h 10m 64% 38%
FrontierDetails → FLL 18:50 → DFW 21:06F9 1973 1h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:23 → PHX 22:59F9 2531 7h 09m 60% 31%
AmericanDetails → FLL 17:28 → DFW 19:34AA 1373 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:30 → PHX 21:02AA 1133 6h 34m 57% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON