Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1018 at 15:00 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 1018 FLL 15:00 → RDU 17:12 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest B6 2626 FLL 19:15 → RDU 21:24 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1018 Delta Flight history →	FLL 15:00	RDU 17:12	14%	3%	0.7%	75%
B6 726 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 07:20	RDU 09:24	14%	5%	0.6%	74%
B6 1626 JetBlue	FLL 07:59	RDU 10:17	15%	6%	0.5%	no record
F9 2178 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 11:42	RDU 14:04	24%	9%	0.6%	71%
B6 2926 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:00	RDU 13:04	25%	9%	0.7%	80%
B6 2626 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 19:15	RDU 21:24	33%	16%	0.7%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON